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Nov 5, 2012
11/12
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i think we all have nevada going blue? >> yes. >> remarkably, we all agree on something. >> we all agree on nevada. >> never happened before. >> yeah. i have it going blue because primarily because of early voting. early voting in nevada has 48,000 more democrats than republicans going to the polls in early voting, casting 700,000 votes. if projections go as planned and they get an 80% turnout, that means 70% of the votes have already been cast there. so me, that seems a pretty good indication of where this state is going. i'll give sail ver lia silver l mitt romney, and that is a lot like colorado. nevada has a very high mormon population. 7%, which is actually fairly high, and again, mormons accounted for a quarter of the electorate in the caucuses. so i think if they turn out in big numbers and it's been really hard to tell where they're at, because they haven't been very vocal, but if they turn out in big numbers, i think mitt romney could get the state. i don't expect him to. >> i would expect him to turn out in big n
i think we all have nevada going blue? >> yes. >> remarkably, we all agree on something. >> we all agree on nevada. >> never happened before. >> yeah. i have it going blue because primarily because of early voting. early voting in nevada has 48,000 more democrats than republicans going to the polls in early voting, casting 700,000 votes. if projections go as planned and they get an 80% turnout, that means 70% of the votes have already been cast there. so me, that...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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i think obama's going to get nevada, colorado and ohio. so again, i don't see romney pulling it out. of course, if any one of those states go in his favor, he wins it by a small margin but, guys, what happens to the winner in the election prediction map? what do i win when i'm the closest? >> a small trophy that we'll -- the producers will make. >> okay. >> and give it to the winner, me, on the air. >> okay. >> and then everybody will know for four years you are the el t elector electoral -- >> made out of bacon? >> should be. it should be. >> the real question is, what sort of shame should the losers have to endure? >> yes, yes. >> the losers or losers. three losers. >> the person that's the biggest loser. >> furthest away. >> you or me. i'm the tightest. you have the widest margin. >> you're the outliers. >> she'll win a romney t-shirt for a week. >> oh! >> the contrast. >> the loser. thank you for that. >> a red sox shirt. how about that? >> too much. >> either way, this is going to work out. >> what would you be wearing? >> enemy of th
i think obama's going to get nevada, colorado and ohio. so again, i don't see romney pulling it out. of course, if any one of those states go in his favor, he wins it by a small margin but, guys, what happens to the winner in the election prediction map? what do i win when i'm the closest? >> a small trophy that we'll -- the producers will make. >> okay. >> and give it to the winner, me, on the air. >> okay. >> and then everybody will know for four years you are...
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Oct 24, 2012
10/12
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. >> and right now, mitt romney is speaking in nevada. he and paul ryan focusing there hoping to sweet the spot of 270 electoral votes. ohio is the key to that math with 18 votes on its own. more money has been spent on ads in the buckeye state than any other. $177 million worth so far. did it help anyone? they're polling neck and neck there as they are nationwide in the real clear politics poll average and look at the ""the washington post""/abc news poll. i think that's one person. that's about as close as you can get in one of those polls. we start now with mark blumenthal at huffington post and a polling expert. let's start with ohio. there are scenarios for both of the candidates to win this election without ohio but it is the closest thing there is to a must win state i'd say for both candidates. what is your best sense right now of where the race stands in ohio and why is it where it is? >> well, our estimate which is based on all of the public polls as run through a model we have on the huff post election dashboard has pretty cons
. >> and right now, mitt romney is speaking in nevada. he and paul ryan focusing there hoping to sweet the spot of 270 electoral votes. ohio is the key to that math with 18 votes on its own. more money has been spent on ads in the buckeye state than any other. $177 million worth so far. did it help anyone? they're polling neck and neck there as they are nationwide in the real clear politics poll average and look at the ""the washington post""/abc news poll. i think...
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Sep 11, 2012
09/12
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gave, i think, last july at the vets of foreign wars 113th annual national convention in reason reno, nevada. >> instead of making tough choices to reduce the deficit, they'd rather protect tax cuts for some of the wealthiest americans even if risks big cuts until the military. i have to tell you, vfw, i disagree. >> on the one hand you have republicans saying they're going to protect the tax cuts and put the military on the line. you have democrats blaming republicans for making defense cuts, the sacred cow even though coburn and rand paul call for defense cuts. you have mitt romney attacking the defense cuts at that his running mate paul ryan voted for. it seems as though everyone is willing to make defense spending a political football, and i can't think of a sadder commentary on the state of washington politics than on this day to be having that conversation. >> you're spot on. we can do much better as sprg a 21st century military instead of holding onto to too much of a cold war military. take the example of an aircraft carrier today. within 24 hours it can strike eight times of the tar
gave, i think, last july at the vets of foreign wars 113th annual national convention in reason reno, nevada. >> instead of making tough choices to reduce the deficit, they'd rather protect tax cuts for some of the wealthiest americans even if risks big cuts until the military. i have to tell you, vfw, i disagree. >> on the one hand you have republicans saying they're going to protect the tax cuts and put the military on the line. you have democrats blaming republicans for making...
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Nov 3, 2012
11/12
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ohio, wisconsin, nevada. are we at a point where the only hope for romney there's something wrong in the method oflg these state polls? >> i think we're about at that point opinion he has a couple of days left for him to make a come back. there isn't a single poll, a single nonpartisan poll in ohio, wisconsin or nevada that shows romney in the lead. and, yes, you know the polls have been wrong before and it's conceivable that things can be off. you can ask about sharon engel if polls are right. the overwhelming majority of the time when someone holds a lead of this magnitude, this consistently, they wine up winning. and, you know, there are reasons to think the polls could be off. it's tough to talk to people on cell phones. assumptions about turn out are more important than ever. but, yeah, you're right i think the polls have to be wrong at this state level. >> polls ask who are you going to vote for but there's data around polls who do you think will win and that's extraordinarily predictive. why is that qu
ohio, wisconsin, nevada. are we at a point where the only hope for romney there's something wrong in the method oflg these state polls? >> i think we're about at that point opinion he has a couple of days left for him to make a come back. there isn't a single poll, a single nonpartisan poll in ohio, wisconsin or nevada that shows romney in the lead. and, yes, you know the polls have been wrong before and it's conceivable that things can be off. you can ask about sharon engel if polls are...
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Dec 11, 2012
12/12
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one potential model for the future for unions is to look at culinary 226 in las vegas, nevada. nevada is a right to work state and yet they have managed to communicate how important their union is and how important union membership is so they have near 100% membership compliance. those sorts of stories need to be told. >> there's a problem for unions here and you hit it earlier. yeah, there's a good message out there to put out there and there's something fundamental sort of about the american value and we like to think of ourselves as individuals and fundamentally the message of unions and it serves a noble purpose but the message of unions is you are part of a group, a collective organization here. and we have this impulse to rebel against that. no, damn it, i'm my own man, i'm my own woman. why should i have to -- >> you can't force me to. >> you're fighting this and tell the story of all these benefits there's an instinct to say, damn it, i'll get it on my own. >> i'm sure there will be more of this in weeks to come. >>> straight ahead, i've been gone for five days and we'r
one potential model for the future for unions is to look at culinary 226 in las vegas, nevada. nevada is a right to work state and yet they have managed to communicate how important their union is and how important union membership is so they have near 100% membership compliance. those sorts of stories need to be told. >> there's a problem for unions here and you hit it earlier. yeah, there's a good message out there to put out there and there's something fundamental sort of about the...
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Aug 23, 2012
08/12
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we've seen elections where republicans have gotten pummeled on medicare and a special election in nevada where it went in their favor. i don't think that is fully formed with ryan on the ticket yet. i think it's early and the conversation is just starting. coming out of the conventions it will be interesting to see how that plays out. >> it is interesting to see w. is in hiding but elvis is still alive. clinton is going to be campaigning, conventioning. he has a new ad promoting obama. let's run that. >> it's about which candidate is more likely to return us to full employment. this is a clear choice. the republican plan is to cut more taxes on upper income people and go back to deregulation. that's what got us in trouble in the first place. president obama has a plan to rebuild america from the ground up investing in innovation, education, and job training. it only works if there is a strong middle class. that's what happened when i was president. we need to keep going with his plan. >> i'm barack obama and i approve this message. >> plain spoken, high minded, focused on the middle clas
we've seen elections where republicans have gotten pummeled on medicare and a special election in nevada where it went in their favor. i don't think that is fully formed with ryan on the ticket yet. i think it's early and the conversation is just starting. coming out of the conventions it will be interesting to see how that plays out. >> it is interesting to see w. is in hiding but elvis is still alive. clinton is going to be campaigning, conventioning. he has a new ad promoting obama....
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Oct 17, 2012
10/12
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if the ground game and enthusiasm regenerates, romney would struggle to overcome that especially in nevada and virginia and to a lesser extent south carolina and florida. >> if you look at the snap polls, they have romney squarely winning on the economy. ybs with 65% to 34%. if we believe what we believed all year the economy is most important to voters and giving the win overall to obama, then what is this sort of portend? that the economy's going to be an important issue and like obama so much to forget that it's so bad? what do you make of that? >> i have one question about the polls that i think worth asking. that's, what did they think before the debate? if these people, this isn't a representative sampling of all adults but the people that watched the debate and possible to envision how the people that watched the debate maybe more republican leaning and maybe obama moved the numbers, maybe not. i think that would be good evidence that the obama campaign's attacks on mitt romney's character have been effective. i think that's evidence of the personal connection of voters to the presi
if the ground game and enthusiasm regenerates, romney would struggle to overcome that especially in nevada and virginia and to a lesser extent south carolina and florida. >> if you look at the snap polls, they have romney squarely winning on the economy. ybs with 65% to 34%. if we believe what we believed all year the economy is most important to voters and giving the win overall to obama, then what is this sort of portend? that the economy's going to be an important issue and like obama...
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Aug 21, 2012
08/12
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missouri is a republican friendly state than colorado and nevada. the desire of vote to get rid of claire mccaskill, if you're todd akin you say i go do the apology now, i get self-discipline, that's a big if, but until the election day, and republicans now sort of trying to push me out, think of karl rove's people, get to end of october, you may need missouri to win back the senate, they're back there with money. >> explain how he deals with the media market in missouri where claire mccaskill, will if she's smart play every single one of the clips we played as well as remind everyone that mitt romney, karl rove, rin rance pr denounced this guy. what do you do about that? >> that's the thing that's so interesting to me. right now, a poll yesterday, right now the guy's sitting on a 24% favorability rating. 24%. dismal. he's still up on claire mccaskill skill by 1%. they have taken a risk. if they decided to stay in, more damaging than the actual comments will be all of the litany of republican loomnaries coming out and saying this guy's terrible, he
missouri is a republican friendly state than colorado and nevada. the desire of vote to get rid of claire mccaskill, if you're todd akin you say i go do the apology now, i get self-discipline, that's a big if, but until the election day, and republicans now sort of trying to push me out, think of karl rove's people, get to end of october, you may need missouri to win back the senate, they're back there with money. >> explain how he deals with the media market in missouri where claire...
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Oct 8, 2012
10/12
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the question is whether obama gets an outsized bounce in states like ohio, nevada and iowa where he was doing better than nationally. if you look at all of the national polls conducted since the first debate, what you see is about a three point gain for romney. if that holds and if that uniformly filtering down to the battleground states, romney would still trail in iowa, ohio and alabama and obama would have a slight advantage ♪ electoral college. >> continuing our theme of what really matters, let's talk about the polls. obviously, polls don't vote. but do they sway the electorate? do they see one person as leading or gaining and some people decide to change their vote? is there some science on do polls actually shape the election itself? >> i don't think there's very much evidence that polls shift the election. if they did, i think we would see, you know, a clearer sign of that. what i think the public reacts to that is momentum, i think a lot of voters are like the people that aren't sure or are sure what they want for dinner but won't say it in a crowd necessarily. when someone s
the question is whether obama gets an outsized bounce in states like ohio, nevada and iowa where he was doing better than nationally. if you look at all of the national polls conducted since the first debate, what you see is about a three point gain for romney. if that holds and if that uniformly filtering down to the battleground states, romney would still trail in iowa, ohio and alabama and obama would have a slight advantage ♪ electoral college. >> continuing our theme of what really...
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Sep 21, 2012
09/12
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two hours from now mitt is in sin city for his sixth trip to the cash-strapped state of nevada. nbc's peter alexander is with the romney campaign. let's begin with kristen welker at the white house. the white house knows it's winning this race by a small amount, but anything could arise in october and knock them off course. are they concerned about the thing they don't know is coming? >> reporter: absolutely. they're concerned about the fact that they're expecting those polls to get tighter again. they like what they see right now. the president has a little bit of a lead in some key battleground states, but they say this is a volatile field, and they're expecting this race as we get closer to election day, to again narrow. there are a lot of uncertainties right now. the unrest in the middle east and the economy. you have two more jobs reports coming up including one that comes out before voters head to the polls. they will watch closely for that. republicans feel confident about their ground game right now. that's another uncertainty as we get closer to election day. don't forg
two hours from now mitt is in sin city for his sixth trip to the cash-strapped state of nevada. nbc's peter alexander is with the romney campaign. let's begin with kristen welker at the white house. the white house knows it's winning this race by a small amount, but anything could arise in october and knock them off course. are they concerned about the thing they don't know is coming? >> reporter: absolutely. they're concerned about the fact that they're expecting those polls to get...
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Oct 23, 2012
10/12
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as for mitt romney, in about 15 minutes he and paul ryan will begin kicking off their sprint in nevada, and we'll have coverage live with the governor speaks. back to the debate last night. an orc snap poll put the president winning the debate 48% to 40%. when you ask about able to be commander in chief come out about even. this comes from friend of show matt miller in the "washington post." mat writes, i don't get it. maybe it's me. for all the momentum romney's shown in recent weeks, i thought he still needed to shake thinging up in order to win. this was the last chance he had. he obviously didn't think he needed to. matt joins us now. matt, you've had a night to sleep on this. are you still confused? >> i'm a little clearer. i was so stunned last night, s.e., because i really assumed he wouldn't be appearing like he was the incumbent and obama would act as the challenger. as i slept on and talk to republican strategists today, i think they think they're ahead. he was like someone ahead trying to do no harm, and i think he accomplished what he set out to do, which was establish that
as for mitt romney, in about 15 minutes he and paul ryan will begin kicking off their sprint in nevada, and we'll have coverage live with the governor speaks. back to the debate last night. an orc snap poll put the president winning the debate 48% to 40%. when you ask about able to be commander in chief come out about even. this comes from friend of show matt miller in the "washington post." mat writes, i don't get it. maybe it's me. for all the momentum romney's shown in recent...
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Oct 30, 2012
10/12
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wisconsin and one of new hampshire, iowa, nevada, you're president of united states. you have a lot of combinations in play for romney. the problem is this. virginia is dead even right now. krystal is right. if obama picks up virginia, it ends things. >> it's dead even right now, but one of the things karen finney pointed out is latinos are underpolled nationwide partly because of a language barrier. you don't get an accurate reading and we talked about before in 2010 colorado, harry reid, a lot of latinos there. they trailed sharon engel by three points at the end and he wins. they're not correctly polling latinos and hispanics. virginia is a huge thing. 80% of the state, and a 92% increase since 2000. if you see an irregularity or differentiation from the polling in colorado, virginia, florida and perhaps florida on election night because they didn't correctly poll lati teenotices. >> virginia will come down to the d, democrats. 200,000 defense jobs are on the line with that sequestration looming on the horizon. the president knows that. i think george allen and tim
wisconsin and one of new hampshire, iowa, nevada, you're president of united states. you have a lot of combinations in play for romney. the problem is this. virginia is dead even right now. krystal is right. if obama picks up virginia, it ends things. >> it's dead even right now, but one of the things karen finney pointed out is latinos are underpolled nationwide partly because of a language barrier. you don't get an accurate reading and we talked about before in 2010 colorado, harry...
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Oct 11, 2012
10/12
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if obama gets ohio he is basically on the one yard line and romney would have to win wisconsin or nevada and iowa. in wisconsin obama is over 50% up 2 poir.5 points. in iowa up three points and gallup's approval number for obama is 52%, which is extremely healthy. there are still extremely strong and healthy numbers for obama throughout to look at. >> steve, i want to direct your attention to a couple of other numbers. one as real clear politics points out, erin mcpike story, the early and absentee voting numbers are looking good for romney. republicans are surpassing democrats in half of those key states. republicans request for early and absentee ballots are up in colorado and florida and north carolina so i think maybe you could see some tightening over the next couple of weeks that the polls haven't been able to account for. what i want to ask you about are two indications that independents have changed their minds a little bit. in virginia, according to that nbc journal marist poll, in virginia which has been deadlocked for independents has independents up for romney 50 to 42% and i
if obama gets ohio he is basically on the one yard line and romney would have to win wisconsin or nevada and iowa. in wisconsin obama is over 50% up 2 poir.5 points. in iowa up three points and gallup's approval number for obama is 52%, which is extremely healthy. there are still extremely strong and healthy numbers for obama throughout to look at. >> steve, i want to direct your attention to a couple of other numbers. one as real clear politics points out, erin mcpike story, the early...
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Aug 15, 2012
08/12
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so just as utah and nevada's alcohol laws are different, different communities around the nation would have different laws once the federal government got out of it and let states regulate. and also, at had point, we've only been talking about the psychoactive social/medicinal cannabis. but industrial cannabis has huge potential as a biofuel and industrial product. in the heartland in north dakota, you have the agricultural commissioner pleading for the hemp side to be legal which is now just as much of a schedule one felony. it's really time to let all parts of the country benefit from whatever side of this plant might have the most value locally. >> doug makes the economic point and the moral point in his book but se, talk about the political side of it. it is politically dangerous especially for a national candidate to try to make this point. who is the sort of politician? because i think most of us here think eventually this will happen maybe in 20 or 30 years. who is the sort of person who could lead this cause toward legalization? >> people on the edges have stood up and tried to
so just as utah and nevada's alcohol laws are different, different communities around the nation would have different laws once the federal government got out of it and let states regulate. and also, at had point, we've only been talking about the psychoactive social/medicinal cannabis. but industrial cannabis has huge potential as a biofuel and industrial product. in the heartland in north dakota, you have the agricultural commissioner pleading for the hemp side to be legal which is now just...
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Nov 7, 2012
11/12
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senate and fell short with candidates in colorado, chris o'donnell in delaware and sharon angle in nevada. then this year, look, if you didn't have the anomalies in missouri and indiana and candidates felt the need to explain their positions on rape and never a good plan in politics, much less just in social conversation -- >> in life. >> in life, yeah. i mean, but even if you tossed those out you are talking about a senate to otherwise be exactly what it was the day before. >> remarkable. >> i think republicans fall in to a trap looking at when's going on in the senate and don't sense a problem in terms of not just messaging but candidate selection. there's a problem of washington republicans in that they have lost the ability to push for the candidates they want in states. there's a backlash against that and need to find a way to connect with their grassroots and find candidates acceptable to the grass roots and competitive. >> absolutely. >> quickly, one thing on the martinez, rubio thing, you're right but it's more than a couple people on the stage and having the policies that want to
senate and fell short with candidates in colorado, chris o'donnell in delaware and sharon angle in nevada. then this year, look, if you didn't have the anomalies in missouri and indiana and candidates felt the need to explain their positions on rape and never a good plan in politics, much less just in social conversation -- >> in life. >> in life, yeah. i mean, but even if you tossed those out you are talking about a senate to otherwise be exactly what it was the day before....
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Nov 1, 2012
11/12
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you can move to the middle of the desert in nevada, ron paul country out there, off the power grid and with your own water well, and when mother nature rips the desert in two with an earthquake or washes away your possessions right down to the last flag, it's your fellow citizens who will come to your rescue. try as we might to wall ourselves off, we are truly in this together. i am a democrat because we're in this together. our political debate is not between big government and small government. it's between a democratic party that supports effective government properly funded and based on compromise and gop extremist vision of minimalist government that leaves you on your own and holds low taxes at its only sacred ideal. the words that vaulted barack obama into the national spotlight were about how we're not red states and blue states, but the united states of america. we were hungry for those words and we still are. i believe that we are better when we work together, that we are our brother and our sister's keeper, that good, effective govern
you can move to the middle of the desert in nevada, ron paul country out there, off the power grid and with your own water well, and when mother nature rips the desert in two with an earthquake or washes away your possessions right down to the last flag, it's your fellow citizens who will come to your rescue. try as we might to wall ourselves off, we are truly in this together. i am a democrat because we're in this together. our political debate is not between big government and small...
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Nov 6, 2012
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colorado and wisconsin at 9:00, nevada and iowa where this all started close at 10:00. i already hit the polls this morning with krystal. i wonder if we canceled each other out? >> we look so happy. >> toure took his son with him before work. steve, we shipped him out to battleground virginia so he can cast an aabsentee ballot yesterday before he left. as for the candidates, obama is the first president ever to do early voting. mitt romney was at the polls this morning in massachusetts in an 11th hour decision he added two stops today. they're not official rallies but are billed as him thanking supporters. read into what you'd like. he's heading to pittsburgh right now and was in ohio earlier at the same time joe biden was there. you can see air force 2 sneak in behind the parked romney jet before romney met with reporters. peter alexander is live at romney headquarters if boston. peter, what's the vibe there? >> reporter: s.e., we can show you live pictures of what's happening right now. mitt romney is touching down in pittsburgh, pennsylvania. you noted the earlier st
colorado and wisconsin at 9:00, nevada and iowa where this all started close at 10:00. i already hit the polls this morning with krystal. i wonder if we canceled each other out? >> we look so happy. >> toure took his son with him before work. steve, we shipped him out to battleground virginia so he can cast an aabsentee ballot yesterday before he left. as for the candidates, obama is the first president ever to do early voting. mitt romney was at the polls this morning in...